Old news now, but the mid May contemporary art sales at Christies and Sotheby’s in New York totaled close to $1 billion. Immediately thereafter, one of my colleagues in England telephoned and asked if these prices were, in my opinion, any indication of how Sotheby’s and Christies are rigging the art market, colluding with one another to counsel consigners to keep some pieces back, manufacturing a scarcity in order to drive prices up. Run on sentence, I know, but my colleague was exercised. He may also have just been down to the pub.
With all that, my colleague’s suspicion seems at first face reasonably founded. The art and antiques market, like any other, can only absorb a certain amount of material at any given time- regardless of its quality. For example, we handled a collection of very desirable California plein aire paintings a few years ago, which collection included nearly 30 pictures by one particular artist. Although well-known, sales records for this artist’s work, now easily accessible online on sites like ArtInfo and ArtNet, as well as on the sites of the auction houses, indicated that on average over the last ten years, no more than 5 or so of his works were ever sold in any one year. That it would take a number of years to sell the artist’s work, given the historical rate of market absorption, was difficult for us to communicate to our consigner. All he saw, and continues to see, given that we are still trying to sell some of the pictures, were recent individual sales results and presumed that all thirty pictures, offered in one fell swoop, would be eagerly acquired by anxious buyers. As my faithful readers will doubtless remember, we consider art and antiques a fungible commodity- like any other, a scarcity raises prices, a glut lowers them. The spike in prices in the May New York sales would ostensibly indicate a paucity of material available for sale, surprising given the doldrums in the world’s economy. One would assume their would be a stampede of newly poor art collectors, whose only way out of the sub prime mortgage mess would be to flog a painting or two, or three or four. This year, it seemed to me there was plenty of material on offer, a lot really pretty good, although nothing stellar like the Rothko from David Rockefeller’s collection that was the focus of so much pre-sale hype last year. So, for whatever reason it was on the market, there seemed to be plenty of supply.
Christies and Sotheby’s have both announced a significant increase in their buyer’s premiums, even at the highest sales levels, with a minimum 12% on any purchase. So, that $77 million Francis Bacon? Add $9.24 million to the sales price. It’s only money. Still, the fact that, in the wake of sales records, it is abundantly clear that both the major houses are badly in need of revenue. Where formerly they sought to, shall we say, gouge the smaller buyer with a 25% premium for lots up to $50,000, now it’s everyone at any price level. Democratic of them, isn’t it? So, on the one hand, though I’ve said the art market can only absorb so much at one time, on the other, as badly in need of revenue as the auction houses appear to be, it seems unlikely they would postpone the sale of any good consignments- and risk the consignor selling a good piece privately. Rigging the art market? I don’t believe the auction houses can afford to.
What, then, is driving these prices? Something that we have seen even at small time player Chappell & McCullar offers a bit of an explanation. What’s become clear to us in 2008 is that those with money are spending it. New York has been the crucible for the art market in the last few years, and doubtless dollar weakness has contributed to the escalation of New York sales activity and prices. The world beater in the recent round of sales, Francis Bacon’s Tryptych 1976 was brought from France for sale, and was sold to a European buyer. Strong currency making a purchase in a weaker currency, no doubt. Who would think we’d ever refer to the US dollar as a weaker currency? But the, for the moment, weak US currency, and the escalating price of energy, all the more expensive in the US due to the weakness of the dollar, certainly points to something that should be abundantly clear to all of us- there is no energy supply glut, nor is there likely to be ever again. Energy is the most basic of all commodities, and its increase in price cannot help but instigate significant worldwide price inflation. Have you bought a loaf of bread in the market lately? Those who can will always seek an inflation hedge, and what constitutes a better inflation hedge than commodities in finite supply- real property, precious metals, and canonical art and the finest antiques- these constitute the safest of safe harbor investments.
The long and the short of it is, the recent art market sales may represent less a manifestation of crazy money than they do smart money.



