Easing into the last week of January we are pleased to see a bit of collector and designer activity. In fact, year on year, our gallery traffic for the month is, to a person, exactly what it was last year. Further, the break down is split about equally, designer and private collector. Although rainy and gloomy today in San Francisco, our dispositions are much sunnier than they were a few weeks ago.
While we enjoy our private collector business, it seems to me a better bellwether for our industry is activity associated with interior designers. Design projects always include more than just furniture purchases, so, presumably, when we see the designer, their virtual shopping basket includes paint, wall coverings, window treatments, and various other inputs, not to mention construction activity. So, in the main, when we see interior designers designing, it is akin to the flowers in spring, and we are, consequently, optimistic about future business. Clients do not spend money on design fees, and designers, like the rest of us, are disinclined to work- and shopping for antiques is work- unless a payday is in the offing.
With a mention of construction activity, I’ve tried to chase down the contractor we use from time to time and found him, surprisingly, busy, but not with new construction. He told me, though, that he has all the remodels he can handle.
So, what’s with all this? From the Chappell & McCullar first-three weeks in January paradigm can we determine any economic portends? I don’t remember much about my three semester unit class in statistics, but it is doubtful we’ve got enough data, or sufficiently organized our model, to make any projections. Let me repeat, though, our previously expressed notion of what’s going on. What we found in 2008, and something discussed in earlier blogs, was that those people who often ‘churn’ their homes were, the result of the downturn in the residential housing market, staying put. And, staying put, have often times decided to ‘nest’, adding inputs- artwork, antiques, and other movables- that they might not have acquired if the home itself was just merchandise with no long term plan of occupation, beyond the time it took for the paint to dry.
It appears, at least in the housing field, that this year has not so far seen the market revivify, and with prices closer to a nadir than the zenith, the nesting phenomenon might be expected to continue. While we’ve loved selling pieces of furniture in multiples for large projects, we are content, for the moment, to assist our good design and collector clients with the occasional single accent piece.